Thursday, September 06, 2012

Two interesting events that happened in the last few days caught my attention – Launch on Ramayan on Zee TV on Sunday morning 11 AM and Raj Thakre’s rally at Azad maidan yesterday.




Prima facie they may seem to be unrelated, but I believe there is a hidden connect. The hidden connect is our disconnect with India. India that is moving forward tremendously on demographics and economics but not so fast on psychographics.



Anna Hazare, an honorable man, went on fast a few days back protesting against issues that affect you and me(I hate to see the amount of money I am forced to pay to these politicians through Income tax). But no one turned up, a few thousands at best. Raj Thakre, singularly, drove more than 60k supporters to Azad maidan yesterday.



Ramayan (on Zee TV)launched yet again in the same slot as Satyamev Jayate. Rated more than SJ rating on Star Plus. The massive army of experts in Star Plus obviously got it wrong. Big time! There was no match on content, on marketing support, on-air push, Star power etc between the two shows; but look who won ?



The above two instances to my mind, point at the fact that demographics can change with a generation but psychographics cannot. Actions can change within a generation but change in attitude will happen over generations.



Sometimes I think lethal combination of Twitter + Star World + NDTV 24*7 + Facebook + Malls + Weekend Getaways + English Books + Movies; creates an island. We look at the other world and its issues through the eyes of this world.

That’s why we keep getting surprised and shocked time and again.





Gandhi, in his first address to INC after his return from South Africa said that we can’t get freedom with the lawyers and politicians sitting here. He went on for months of travel across India after this address… set up his ashram and started with Champaran village as his first step.
Who is Katrina kaif ?

she featured in the top 10 power list in India today's latest edition.

is she a great actor ? :-) no.

is she a great human being ? no

has she done some great work for this nation ? no


I am yet to meet an Indian male who has not seen Sheila Ki Jawaani with "those" eyes.


I am not talking from a pedestal here, i am very much part of this. only difference being that I am acknowledging that she appeals to the most primal instinct and nothing more..


but does it not surprise you

Monday, April 11, 2011

is future better or was past

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mujhko yaqeen hai sach kahti thi, jo bhi ammi kahti thi -2 jab mere bachpan ke din the, ,chaand mein pariyaan rahti thi

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ye daulat bhii le lo, ye shoharat bhii le lobhale chhiin lo mujhase merii javaanii, magar mujhako lautaa do bachapan kaa saavan, vo kaagaz kii kashtii, vo baarish kaa paanii.

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Two ghazals, sung by the same legend, remembering the past, but, in such different ways. One is fondly recollecting past (childhood) without complaining about the present, other is truly unhappy with the present day reality. The latter one, I must admit with my limited knowledge, is quite a popular theme amongst poets. :-)

Why is it so? Primarily, I think, Poets who write about how life was much better earlier usually are old folks. It resonates with how my grandparents would talk about their lives. As one grows old, there is tendency to dislike the present and romanticize the past. Nothing wrong with that, but I think it tends to get overdone. Broader question, however, requires a more careful introspection. Civilizations that believe that their “peak” has already past tend to encourage this theme of writing quite a bit. A classic example is India. We have grown up being told that India was a "sone ki chidiya" and what we have now is all rut. That the “best has already happened”. It affects today’s' generations’ outlook to future in a profound way. It forces evaluation to today’s development with hazy benchmarks of past. It blinds you to absorb all the traditions/customs as they seem to be belonging to the much coveted glorious historical era. Old practices, social norms etc get un-reasoned acceptance.

Compare this to a country like America. They, obviously, can’t claim to have had a grand history like us. However, what this does is that at a sociological level citizens are trying to reach to their peak. They believe "the best is yet to happen". It is a lot more positive thought than of "the best has already happened" thought.

Well, in the end it boils down to, like everything, a “definitional issue” :-) . How do you define development. How do you !!

Wednesday, April 06, 2011

Change the Game


Mukesh Ambani's RIL is worth 3,36,000 crores. Dont even know what that number means, but it looks very very large. Especially in comparison to the 12,000 crore Indian TV industry :-)

Last year, RIL bought rights for 4G in 22 circles through a relatively un-known company from Punjab - Infotel.

This plan of un-related diversification came days after the two brothers signing on the closure of non-compete agreements. This plan has obviously not got Mr Ambani's attention to increase 3.36 mentioned above to 3.76 :-). Not incremental plan, change the orbit plan.


RIL has always been about changing the orbit and thats what seems to be cooking in their minds.


Like I mentioned in my post a few days back, I have personally been surprised by average Indian's ability to take up technology. Data and Analysis on English speaking population, literacy rate being barriers to technology is misleading.


Whatever you do, trust me on"Sheila Ki Jawani" . It will reach everywhere and everyone :-)..






Whatever happened to train travel !

The Train ride,back from home, this time around was very different. Different because it beat my expectations on the speed of change.

To me train journey was about sitting on the aisle seat looking at the landscape, Reading a book, Chatting with fellow passengers, Observing the chai walla and letting the thoughts meander . I did exactly the same this time around only to realise that I was the only romantic :-).

Gadgets had taken over the my coach, cutting across pyshcographics as well as demographics.

Private screenings of movies on laptops, music on iphone, Continous phone calls and beat this !!... a 70 year old grandmom doing aarti from her phone ring tone!

It seemed like there was a pressure to get oneself entertained. Not even a minute should go by without it. With 100% mobile connectivity and power connections in the trains what else was I expecting !!!


The other interesting observation was the change in profile of travellers in the 2nd AC compartment. for general information, the ticket cost was 1400 Rs. Cheap airlines would cost around 3 to 3.5 K. Who are these people who are wanting to save 1500 Rs for extra 16 hours of travel ! have a think and let me know:-)

Friday, October 05, 2007

Presenting Gordon Gekko !!


A ghazal made immortal by Mehdi Hassan

Ranjish hi sahi dil hi dukhaanay kay liyay
aa aa phir say mujhay chhorr kay jaanay kay liyay aa

pehlay say maraasim na sahi phir bhi kabhi to
rasm-o-rahay duniya hi nibhaanay kay liyay aa

kis kis ko bataayengay judaai kaa sabab ham
tu mujh se khafaa hai to zamaanay kay liyay aa

kuchh to meri pindaar-e-mohabbat ka bharam rakh
tu bhi to kabhi mujh ko manaanay kay liyay aa

ek umr say hun lazzat-e-giryaa se bhi mehruum
aye raahat-e-jaan mujh ko rulaanay kay liyay aa

ab tak dil-e-khush_feham ko tujh say hain ummeedainye
aakhari shammain bhi bujhaanay kay liyay aa

Friday, August 31, 2007

Stocks and Relationships


Every time I look at my stock equity portfolio, I cannot resist classifying them beyond the conventional ways (Sector, Blue Chip, Punter etc. etc).
What follows now is one of those random segmentation take-offs that revolves around comparison between relationships with women and relationship with stocks.



One-night-stand stocks
These stocks are dangerous opportunistic purchases. However, the thrill of making money on these is the greatest. These stocks offer great prices for a very short period of time and quickly bounce back to the earlier levels. A successful deal always leaves you with a very fond memory (smiles).

Flirting stocks
These are also opportunistic purchases but with much paraphernalia. These are not convincing stories from a medium-to-long term future but in the short-term outlook is great. Great enough for you to take the plunge and buy some. Let me clarify that these are NOT weak counters.. just that future earnings is not clearly and convincingly visible.

Serious affair
Most of the commodity / cyclical stocks would fall in this range. In the boom cycle your relationship with these stocks would be most rewarding. It would, at multiple occasions, make you believe that they should become marriage-able stocks. Much to your dismay, when supply side forces a down-turn, you will be forced to exit.
Even after exiting you will always cherish the great rewards that you had reaped with these stocks.

Marriage-able stocks
These are stocks that will remain in your portfolio for life (most likely similar to your spouses). However, your confidence in them would follow a pattern which is as straight as a sine-curve. They will test your patience, your courage, pretty much everything at regular intervals. Forcing you to re-think not about the stock but entire equity market altogether. (smiles)
Some examples – Ranbaxy, ONGC

And finally…


Mother like stocks
All loving, never disappointing, stocks. They only move up or at best consolidate. You always doubt entering them thinking that they have already run-up. But anytime is good time to enter into stocks like these.
Some examples - Reliance Industries, BHEL, L&T.

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

16 Core Observations of Social Design

  1. Humans are complex social animals.
  2. Technology doesn’t change us very fast.
  3. Humans constantly search out ways to communicate more efficiently.
  4. The primary use of the Internet is communication.
  5. People play different roles in different parts of their life.
  6. People tend to connect to those people they are similar to.
  7. Who we are similar to depends upon our situation and goals.
  8. Over-similarity can lead to group-think.
  9. Unpredictable behavior emerges within groups over time.
  10. People act differently in groups than they do individually.
  11. The people we know greatly influence how we act.
  12. People usually compare themselves to those in their social group, not society at large.
  13. Humans aren’t always rational, but are usually self-interested.
  14. When humans are uncertain, we rely on social connections to help us out.
  15. We have biases that we aren’t conscious of.
  16. Because life in not deterministic, we cannot always predict human behavior

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

How startups work or don't

Got this excellent piece of text from a friend who is currently working as a "commando" :-)
Great read! enjoy

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Businesses grow from start-up to conglomerate in three distinct phases, each of which is driven by a different type of person. The differences and conflicts between these waves of activity help explain why so many small companies self-destruct as they grow, and why so many large companies are so bad at doing anything new.

By Rob Landley (TMF Oak)

Chapter 12 of Robert X. Cringely's Accidental Empires gives an excellent analogy between the growth of a company and a military operation. He talks about three waves of expansion, each with its own characteristics and each one driven by people with very different sets of skills.

The first wave to hit the beach when entering new territory consists of commandos. These are people who, in Cringely's words, "Work hard, fast, and cheap.... Their job is to do lots of damage with surprise and teamwork, establishing a beachhead before the enemy is even aware that they exist." Simply put, they create something out of nothing, turning an idea into a product. A commando can literally do the work of a hundred normal employees when they've got the right problems to work on. A start-up without commandos has nothing to sell.

The second wave consists of infantry, exploiting the opportunity created by the commandos. These are the people who turn a promising start-up into a profitable business with systematic development, manufacturing, and sales efforts. They provide structure to the company that allows it to grow beyond an activity shared by a half-dozen friends into a real business. As Cringely says, "While the commandos make success possible, it's the infantry that makes success happen."

The third wave consists of police. Once the business has grown into its market niche, the third wave is an occupying force intent on holding territory. Author Eric Raymond describes middle managers as "conservators of the stability of the organization," which makes the presence of middle management a clear indicator that the third wave has arrived. A middle manager's job is to say no to ideas that don't originate from on high, somewhere near the CEO. This prevents the enormous size of the company from tearing it apart. A mature third-wave corporation is full of bureaucrats defending the empire, approximately as interested in reducing expenses as growing sales. Third-wave gains come from economies of scale, incremental growth, and by simply remaining profitable quarter after quarter.

Yahoo!'s (Nasdaq: YHOO) commandos were its founders, Jerry Yang and David Filo. Venture capital funded Yahoo!'s transition to a second-wave company with hundreds of employees, struggling toward profitability. It's still a second-wave company.

Earlier this year, VA Linux Systems (Nasdaq: LNUX) bought Andover.net, primarily because Andover owned some interesting websites, including one it had bought only months earlier: Slashdot.org. Slashdot was also founded by two college students, Rob Malda and Jeff Bates. When Andover acquired Slashdot, Rob and Jeff handed off the administrative portion of their duties in order to concentrate on their creative work. They were amused that the jobs they used to do as a part-time sideline were now handled by more than a dozen full-time staff members at Andover. This is the normal productivity difference between commandos and infantry. The difference is you can hire more infantry fairly easily, and order the ones you have to do specific tasks. Commandos just don't work that way.

Although infantry and commandos can work together, there is some natural tension between the two groups. The founders of many companies leave after the IPO, commandos looking for fresh challenges rather than settling down to nurture old ideas. On the other hand, infantry can take much of the non-creative load off of commandos, giving them a protected environment in which to work free from distractions.

The third wave is fairly exclusive. Agents of change and facilitators of change don't mix with opponents of change. The only place second-wave people can survive in a third-wave company is at the executive level. The only way dynamic individuals can survive middle management is by outranking it. The problem here is that the company cannot promote from within easily. Middle management stifles visionaries, who leave the company or give up their creative ambitions. The company must hire executive talent from outside the company, or wind up as a paralyzed, reactionary zombie. This fate nearly befell AT&T (NYSE: T), IBM (NYSE: IBM), and many other large companies that gave middle managers executive power to suppress ALL change within the company.

Commandos categorically cannot STAND middle management. A third-wave company cannot keep commandos around. Period. Commandos create change, middle managers prevent change. When "the suits" take over, the commandos are outta there. The bureaucrats often don't value commandos during the brief times they have access to them (often in the brief period of time between buying a promising start-up and killing it). The commando's idiosyncratic nature, even outright unreliability, may be a minor price to pay to receive the benefits of their brilliance, but the unpredictability is all the bureaucrats can see, and it gives them hives.

Usually, commandos leave long before the third wave. When the second wave becomes too prominent, and building upon existing successes becomes more important to the company than creative new directions, the commandos simply get bored, take their stock options, and leave. This isn't a "lack of discipline" (a strange accusation to level at people who work 90 hours a week), this is just the way creative people ARE. Steve Wozniak of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), and Steve Jobs when he couldn't be CEO of a second-wave company. Mitch Kapor at Lotus. Netscape's Jamie Zawinski. The list is endless.

An interesting business model Robert Cringely recently covered in his PBS column is a private company founded by a couple of commandos with the intent of spinning off a continuous stream of new second-wave companies, each with its own IPO. The commandos come up with the new products, assemble a team of infantry around each one, and then release it into the wild. Meanwhile, the commandos are busy creating the next new product. You can read about it here.

Healthy companies need to mix the various waves. As they grow, they need to survive the transition from first wave to second wave, and later from second wave to third wave. At all costs, they need to isolate any commandos they need to have on staff from middle management. The case of the launch of IBM's PC is an instructive example of how a third-wave company can do this. (This is covered both in Accidental Empires and The Innovator's Dilemma -- both perspectives are valuable.)

As investors, we tend to focus on second- and third-wave companies. First-wave companies aren't publicly traded, and most start-ups fail because their commandos can't handle the details of running and growing a business yet don't hand it off to competent infantry. Second-wave companies are Rule Breakers, most lucrative early in the second wave with plenty of room left to grow along their current lines. Third-wave companies with second-wave upper management are Rule Makers, stable and profitable with the potential for steady growth. Third-wave companies with third-wave executives are probably not a good investment.


-- Oak